Understanding primary care transformation and implications for ageing populations and health inequalities: a systematic scoping review of new models of primary health care in OECD countries and China.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have introduced reforms with the aim of primary care transformation (PCT). Common objectives include meeting service delivery challenges associated with ageing populations and health inequalities. To date, there has been little research comparing PCT internationally. Our aim was to examine PCT and new models of primary care by conducting a systematic scoping review of international literature in order to describe major policy changes including key 'components', impacts of new models of care, and barriers and facilitators to PCT implementation. METHODS: We undertook a systematic scoping review of international literature on PCT in OECD countries and China (published protocol: https://osf.io/2afym ). Ovid [MEDLINE/Embase/Global Health], CINAHL Plus, and Global Index Medicus were searched (01/01/10 to 28/08/21). Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts with data extraction by a single reviewer. A narrative synthesis of findings followed. RESULTS: A total of 107 studies from 15 countries were included. The most frequently employed component of PCT was the expansion of multidisciplinary teams (MDT) (46% of studies). The most frequently measured outcome was GP views (27%), with < 20% measuring patient views or satisfaction. Only three studies evaluated the effects of PCT on ageing populations and 34 (32%) on health inequalities with ambiguous results. For the latter, PCT involving increased primary care access showed positive impacts whilst no benefits were reported for other components. Analysis of 41 studies citing barriers or facilitators to PCT implementation identified leadership, change, resources, and targets as key themes. CONCLUSIONS: Countries identified in this review have used a range of approaches to PCT with marked heterogeneity in methods of evaluation and mixed findings on impacts. Only a minority of studies described the impacts of PCT on ageing populations, health inequalities, or from the patient perspective. The facilitators and barriers identified may be useful in planning and evaluating future developments in PCT.

The Development of Surveillance Systems.

Surveillance systems in public health practice have increased in number and sophistication with advances in data collection, analysis, and communication. When the Communicable Disease Center (now the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) was founded some 70 years ago, surveillance referred to the close observation of individuals with suspected smallpox, plague, or cholera. Alexander Langmuir, head of the Epidemiology Branch, redefined surveillance as the epidemiology-based critical factor in infectious disease control. I joined Langmuir as assistant chief in 1955 and was appointed chief of the Surveillance Section in 1961. In this paper, I describe Langmuir's redefinition of surveillance. Langmuir asserted that its proper use in public health meant the systematic reporting of infectious diseases, the analysis and epidemiologic interpretation of data, and both prompt and widespread dissemination of results. I outline the Communicable Disease Center's first surveillance systems for malaria, poliomyelitis, and influenza. I also discuss the role of surveillance in the global smallpox eradication program, emphasizing that the establishment of systematic reporting systems and prompt action based on results were critical factors of the program.

John Bartlett and bioterrorism.

Until 1997, the subject of bioterrorism was not discussed within the medical community and deliberately ignored in national planning efforts. Biological weapons were regarded as "morally repulsive." This complacency stemmed from a 1972 Biological Weapons Convention where all countries agreed to cease offensive biological weapons research. In the 1990s, however, the Soviet Union was discovered to have an extensive bioweapons program and a Japanese religious cult sought to launch an anthrax attack on Tokyo. Biological weapons such as smallpox and anthrax had the potential to cause a national catastrophe. However, little was done until John Bartlett in 1997 led a symposium and program to educate the medical community and the country of the need for definitive bioweapons programs. It was highly persuasive and received a final stimulus when the anthrax attack occurred in the United States in 2001.

Lessons from the eradication of smallpox: an interview with D. A. Henderson.

It has been more than 35 years since the last naturally occurring case of smallpox. Sufficient time has passed to allow an objective overview of what were the key factors in the success of the eradication effort and what lessons smallpox can offer to other campaigns. Professor D. A. Henderson headed the international effort to eradicate smallpox. Here, we present a summary of D. A. Henderson's perspectives on the eradication of smallpox. This text is based upon the Unither Baruch Blumberg Lecture, delivered by D. A. Henderson at the University of Oxford in November 2012 and upon conversations and correspondence with Professor Henderson.

Return of epidemic dengue in the United States: implications for the public health practitioner.

Conditions that facilitate sustained dengue transmission exist in the United States, and outbreaks have occurred during the past decade in Texas, Hawaii, and Florida. More outbreaks can also be expected in years to come. To combat dengue, medical and public health practitioners in areas with mosquito vectors that are competent to transmit the virus must be aware of the threat of reemergent dengue, and the need for early reporting and control to reduce the impact of dengue outbreaks. Comprehensive dengue control includes human and vector surveillance, vector management programs, and community engagement efforts. Public health, medical, and vector-control communities must collaborate to prevent and control disease spread. Policy makers should understand the role of mosquito abatement and community engagement in the prevention and control of the disease.

Measles and rubella eradication in the Americas.

The challenge for regions embarking on measles elimination will be to maintain high population immunity with excellent vaccination coverage and high-quality surveillance. Meeting this challenge will be especially critical for dealing with importations of measles virus that will occur as long as the virus is circulating anywhere in the world. Implementation of measles elimination strategies will uncover the "hidden" disease burden of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome. As was the experience in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), integrating the elimination of measles with the elimination of rubella will greatly enhance the capacity of countries to sustain progress in the reduction of measles mortality. Countries of LAC prioritized the routine national immunization program over short-term successes. While doing so, they have also encountered new opportunities to expand the benefits of disease control and elimination activities to other aspects of public health, most importantly towards improving health care for women and newborns and reducing inequities in health in the region's poorest communities. Implementation of similar strategies could lead to the global eradication of measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome early this century, while strengthening routine immunization programs, and developing the capacity to introduce new and underutilized vaccines.

Smallpox virus destruction and the implications of a new vaccine.

The World Health Assembly is scheduled to decide in May 2011 whether the 2 known remaining stockpiles of smallpox virus are to be destroyed or retained. In preparation for this, a WHO-appointed committee undertook a comprehensive review of the status of smallpox virus research from 1999 to 2010. It concluded that, considering the nature of the studies already completed with respect to vaccine, drugs, and diagnostics, there was no reason to retain live smallpox virus except to satisfy restrictive regulatory requirements. The committee advised that researchers and regulators define alternative models for testing the vaccines and drugs. Apart from other considerations, the costs of new products are significant and important. These include prospective expenditures required for the development, manufacture, testing, and storage of new products. This commentary provides approximations of these costs and the incremental contribution that a newly developed vaccine might make in terms of public health security.

The dengue threat to the United States.

Over the past 3 decades, dengue has spread rapidly and has emerged as one of the world's most common mosquitoborne viral diseases. Although often found in tropical and semitropical areas, dengue is capable of being transmitted in temperate climates as well. Dengue is currently endemic to Mexico, most other Latin American countries, and parts of the Caribbean, and it has the potential to become reestablished as an endemic disease in the United States. In fact, sustained transmission of dengue has occurred in Florida within the past year. Conditions exist in the U.S. that could facilitate sustained dengue transmission, including environmental factors, competent mosquito vectors, limited vector and dengue surveillance, increased domestic outdoor daytime activities in warmer months, and low public awareness of the disease. If dengue were to be reestablished in the U.S., it could have significant medical, public health, and economic consequences for the country. The impact of dengue as a public health threat could be lessened through enhanced awareness and reporting of cases, increased support for vector surveillance and control programs, and a greater focus on vaccine development.

Bayesian calibration of a stochastic kinetic computer model using multiple data sources.

In this article, we describe a Bayesian approach to the calibration of a stochastic computer model of chemical kinetics. As with many applications in the biological sciences, the data available to calibrate the model come from different sources. Furthermore, these data appear to provide somewhat conflicting information about the model parameters. We describe a modeling framework that allows us to synthesize this conflicting information and arrive at a consensus inference. In particular, we show how random effects can be incorporated into the model to account for between-individual heterogeneity that may be the source of the apparent conflict.

Public health and medical responses to the 1957-58 influenza pandemic.

As the U.S. prepares to respond this fall and winter to pandemic (H1N1) 2009, a review of the 1957-58 pandemic of Asian influenza (H2N2) could be useful for planning purposes because of the many similarities between the 2 pandemics. Using historical surveillance reports, published literature, and media coverage, this article provides an overview of the epidemiology of and response to the 1957-58 influenza pandemic in the U.S., during which an estimated 25% of the population became infected with the new pandemic virus strain. While it cannot be predicted with absolute certainty how the H1N1 pandemic might play out in the U.S. this fall, lessons from the 1957-58 influenza pandemic provide useful and practical insights for current planning and response efforts.